Find the record
We begin with official archives, oversight reports, departmental plans, and research releases. Community discussion can point us toward a record, but it can never replace one.
How we earn the reader’s trust
Evidence before interpretation.
We look for meaningful change without rewarding sensational narratives, recycled reporting, or evidence stripped of its original context.
Check the claim
Every material claim is traced to a public record, a publication date, an originating institution, and a link readers can inspect for themselves.
Weigh the evidence
Stronger sources, newer records, and greater strategic consequence raise a finding. Sensational claims without original evidence move in the opposite direction.
Test the outlook
We compare five plausible futures, from richer sensor releases to tighter secrecy. The range matters as much as the central estimate because uncertainty is part of the story.
Preserve the edition
Each edition remains available after the next one appears, making it possible to see what changed, what endured, and where earlier expectations were wrong.
A line we do not cross
“Unresolved” means the available evidence does not support a defensible identification. It does not mean “exotic.”
Original files, platform context, calibration, range, independent observations, metadata, and a documented chain of custody carry the most weight.